Accelerating Social Innovation And Economic Transformation In Africa Will Shape The Future Of Our Planet’s Population

Eleven years after reaching 7 billion people, the United Nations estimates that the global population will reach 8 billion today, a remarkable accomplishment acknowledged as the Day of 8 Billion every November 15. However, current projections show that new population growth will be more concentrated in countries with higher fertility rates and youthful age structures, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Eight countries are projected to be behind 50% of the growth in population over the next three decades. Five are in Africa. the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, Nigeria, and Tanzania.

In mid-November 2022 the eighth billionth person will be born, according to the United Nations. In its analysis of this milestone, the UN makes two key observations. The first is that the global population has been expanding at its slowest rate since 1950. The growth rate dropped below 1% in 2020, a trend that is likely to continue. The second is that the growth in population has been due to the gradual increase in human lifespan owing to improvements in public health, nutrition, personal hygiene, and medicine. It’s also the result of high and persistent levels of fertility in some countries. According to the UN, just eight countries are expected to be behind 50% of the population growth over the next 30 years.

For Nigeria, such a population boost also brings into focus the need to address many of the country’s challenges: health infrastructure, climate change, drought, access to food, employment, migration, and trade relations. In a hyper-connected world, many African nations face financial instability, slow economic growth, hunger, poverty, and disease. Countries are facing a challenge with achieving SDG targets, while leaders seek new opportunities to transform a population growth that several economists and experts have called the “superabundance,” which can be good for the economy and innovation. From education to healthcare, agriculture, and telecommunications, the next phase of socio-economic growth will require innovative social solutions and inclusive strategies built on digital technology, especially as the world continues to recover from a pandemic and rising inflation.

What’s the significance of the eight billionth birth?

It raises concerns – scientists estimate that Earth’s maximum carrying capacity is between nine billion and 10 billion people. Appreciating these numbers requires an understanding of the distribution and demographic structure of the population. Where are these people across regions, countries, and rural and urban geographies? There is a potential upside to growing populations. It’s known as a demographic dividend. Population growth can be a blessing, spurring economic growth from shifts in a population’s age structure. This is a prospect if working-age people have good health, quality education, decent employment, and a lower proportion of young dependants.

But realizing this dividend depends on a host of things. They include the structure of the population by age, level of education and skills, and living conditions, as well as the distribution of available resources. The consequences of population growth are socioeconomic, political, and environmental. Some of them can be negative. How these unfold is determined by the characteristics of the population and its distribution.

Why are birth rates so high in five African countries?

The major factors driving population growth in these countries include low contraceptive use, high adolescent fertility rates, and a prevalence of polygamous marriages. There’s also the low education status of women, low to poor investment in children’s education, and factors related to religion and ideas. The use of modern contraceptives is generally low across sub-Saharan Africa. The overall prevalence is 22%. In the Democratic Republic of Congo, however, the uptake of short-acting contraceptives is at 8.1%. In Nigeria, it is at 10.5%. The uptake in Ethiopia is 25%, in Tanzania, it’s 27.1% and in Egypt 43%.

For long-acting family planning methods, apart from Egypt with over 20% uptake, the other four countries driving population growth in the region recorded very poor uptake. This low uptake will logically lead to a population explosion. Some of the factors associated with high contraceptive use in Africa are women’s education, exposure to news and mass media, good economic status, and urban residency. The adolescent fertility rate in sub-Saharan Africa – while showing a downward trend – is still relatively high. The adolescent fertility rate captures the number of births per 1,000 girls aged 15 to 19. In sub-Saharan Africa, it stands at an average of 98 births per 1,000 girls.

There is a wide variation in this rate across the five countries: from 52 in Egypt and 62 in Ethiopia to 102 in Nigeria, 114 in Tanzania, and 119 in the DRC. Outside the continent, the adolescent fertility rate is 21 in Asia and the Pacific, and 26 in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. In the US, it’s at 15, five in France, and 42 globally. The adolescent fertility rate has huge implications for population growth because of the number of years between the start of childbearing and the end of a woman’s reproductive age. A high fertility rate in this age group also has a negative influence on the health, economic and educational potential of women and their children.

Another factor driving population growth in these five African countries is polygamous marriage. Women in polygamous unions living in rural areas with low socio-economic status are likely to have higher fertility rates than women in other areas. Polygamy is illegal in the DRC. Nevertheless, it’s common. About 36% of married women in Nigeria, one-quarter of married women in rural Tanzania, and 11% of those in Ethiopia are in polygamous marriages. Finally, a woman’s education status has a significant impact on fertility. For instance, in Tanzania, women with no formal education have as many as 3.3 more children than women with secondary or tertiary education.

What should the next steps be for African countries with high fertility rates?

Government policies and programs need to take into account population growth and align interventions with sustainable use and access to resources. Governments at regional, national and sub-national levels also need to invest in infrastructure and education. They need to create employment if they are to benefit from a growing population. There is also a need to continue investing in family planning.

The age structure of the population is also of concern. The expected growth in population numbers is likely to increase the concentration of young people and those of prime age. With limited socio-economic opportunities for young people, countries are more likely to be subject to the forces of international migration. The proportion of older people is also likely to increase in the five countries in focus. This increases the need for investment in social security, infrastructure, and innovative support for older people. Unfortunately, issues around older people have not gained prominence on the continent.

Expanding productivity through social innovation

As an approach to productivity, social innovation focuses on new solutions to social problems which are more effective, efficient, sustainable, or fairer than existing solutions. It generates value primarily for society instead of single individuals or organizations. It is perceived as being distinctive in its outcomes and relationships, in the new forms of cooperation and collaboration it brings. Social technology is closely connected to this, which enables those most impacted by problems to collaborate with those motivated to provide effective and efficient technology solutions to make a difference.

In many European economies, social innovation has been increasingly perceived as the answer to the rising societal challenges, such as growing social disparities and exclusion, youth issues, unemployment, poverty, and evolving demographics. Yet, while policymakers, leading academics, and social activists agree that social innovation will unlock a better future for the world, implementation is still complex. As a result, many countries struggle to understand what social innovation offers and, more importantly, how it can be done in practice. 

In the 21st century, technology is a critical driver of economic and social prosperity. It is vital in unlocking opportunity, economic growth, and development across all industries, from agriculture to education. Complex social issues like poverty and environmental degradation are by no means new, but the global context in which they arise indeed is. Maximizing the benefits of technology requires a bold national and regional strategy to build a critical mass of tech startups. Where technology startups are nurtured across sectors, governments will increase productivity, create jobs, and find new solutions to meet their countries’ challenges.  

Africa is the next growth market

Here are some possible growth indicators in the tech sector: Africa’s mobile service subscription figures are skyrocketing. Six hundred fifteen million users in sub-Saharan Africa are expected to subscribe to mobile services by 2025. For example, in Nigeria, the total number of active mobile subscribers reached 210 million in August 2022 from 208.6 million in July, with a teledensity of 109.99%. Internet subscribers also exceeded 152.2 million, with broadband penetration at 44.65%. Furthermore, 18 million new subscribers will adopt mobile services in Nigeria by 2025; 12 million in Ethiopia; eight million in the Democratic Republic of Congo; six million in Tanzania; five million in Kenya; four million in Uganda; and 45 million across other countries in the region.

In 2016, the African tech ecosystem barely raised $400 million in venture capital. However, by Q1 2022, $1.5b was raised in 102 deals, and startups continued to perform strongly from the fundraising perspective in Q3. So far, in 2022, 385 startups have raised just shy of US$2.7 billion, which is 28.5% more than was raised in 2021, meaning 2022 is already the most successful yet. The latest performance is not surprising, as the ecosystem raked in 1 billion US dollars in the first seven weeks of the year. That take was more than 25% of the entire 2021 amount – and came with just over 130 deals. These present an immense opportunity and are a testament to Africa’s creative capacities. Advertisement

Africa is already pioneering many innovations that are changing the world, primarily through using financial technology to drive inclusion. But access to technology must be coupled with socio-economic welfare, including driving innovations in healthcare, education, and commerce and addressing the pain points of vulnerable communities.

It is time for the future

A report from the IFC and Google in 2021 estimated that there are currently about 700,000 professional developers across Africa, with just over 50% concentrated in Egypt, Kenya, Morocco, Nigeria, and South Africa. Industry insiders in Nigeria believe that the report’s estimate of 80,000 developers in Nigeria was too generous, as some stipulated that the country probably does not have up to 10,000 software developers in Nigeria. Unfortunately, the country is also affected by the ‘Japa’ phenomenon, with hordes of skilled tech talents leaving yearly for better opportunities. Between 2014 and 2021, 474 Nigerian tech talent moved to the UK via the UK government’s Tech Talent Visa, a visa that allows tech talent to work in the country’s digital technology sector. 

Therefore, governments and stakeholders – in the private and public sectors – must prioritize R&D investments by focusing on producing and commercializing scientific knowledge. At the 8th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of the African Union in 2006, member countries pledged to contribute 1% of their gross domestic product (GDP) to Research & Development. Currently, just four African countries have achieved this figure in their annual budgets. While the continent has to reconcile with its rising population, every possible leverage must be explored and guided by education and information-sharing.

In addition, African countries need to bridge the finance gap in R&D by allowing higher institutions to fundraise through micro-contributions, levies, public-private partnerships, and market-based financial transactions. Through innovative financing mechanisms, endowments at universities will allow higher education institutions to achieve better research outcomes. Therefore, as African startups receive money from investors to build high-growth startups, new and rising talents are ready and equipped to build, manage and innovate.

Thirdly, private sector stakeholders must adopt a business strategy that aligns their corporate objectives with the national imperatives to spur innovation and growth. It begins with specific programs to provide training and access to finance for young innovators whose creativity is intended to address social issues while also building for the global market. The most lucrative industries of the future are becoming increasingly digital, and future generations will need relevant skills to access them. Low-skilled and labor-intensive work sectors are contributing less to the GDPs of many technology-driven countries, so the success of Africa’s economies could soon rely on the skills relevance of their workforces. Given Africa’s population bulge and the surge of young Africans entering the job market, job creation is an issue that requires a sustainable solution.

To maximize the benefits of Africa’s tech revolution, policymakers and leaders should accelerate the adoption of forward-thinking policies. In addition, there have to be fiscal and non-fiscal incentives that enable an environment for innovators, entrepreneurs, and investors to operate, grow and thrive. Building a vibrant tech ecosystem in Africa will help the continent achieve digital sovereignty, set the rules that will shape our global future, and drive the Fourth Industrial Revolution rather than following it.

Source  The Conversation and The Cable