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The problem is that the prophets of World War 3 were right. Only, as in the poem by the Polish-Lithuanian poet Czesław Miłosz about the end of the World that no one noticed – perhaps there will be no more global war other than a permanently hybrid war. And the inhabitants of not infected parts of the World will doubt if it is real at all. But an endless war for the New World Order will spread everywhere on more and more fronts.
The United States and Russia negotiate about the limitation of the arms race, which is now even more obvious. Central-European media threatened the public with the “New Yalta” slogan, at the same time promising the inevitable victory of the only right Euro-Atlantic system. Meanwhile, the geopolitical and geostrategic situation is more complex and much more dangerous, not only for the whole of Europe, being something different than a simple new demarcation of spheres of influence between the powers.
The Cold War has always been closest to the transition to a hot one when it comes to strategic balance of power measured by the deployment and range of missile systems. This was the case when in 1962 the Soviet Union reverted an attempt to locate American missiles in Turkey, what is known as the misleading name of the Cuban Crisis. What follows in the 1980s, when the symbols of Reagan’s and Thatcher’s aggressive imperialism were Pershings, Tomahawks, and the Trident System (still continued by the UK). Whenever war hawks prevail in the Euro-Atlantic zone – it can be seen in the translocation of offensive combat systems, moving closer and closer to the borders of the Russian Federation.
In practice, since Donald Trump’s anti-Chinese policy killed the INF – there is no effective international regulation of the ongoing, though not officially announced, the arms race between the US and the rest of the world. Of course, a very one-sided race, because although no one denies the modernity and training of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation and the power of the People’s Liberation Army – these are the Americans, however, who spend more ($778 billion) on armaments than the next eleven countries on this list combined, eight of which are American allies and dependent countries. This massive dependence of US policy on the interests of the military-industrial complex, unchanged since the Cold War, always leaves a margin of concern whether such a huge arsenal will tempt someone to finally be used. Even just to make some space for new purchases…
Disarmament or at least non-proliferation negotiations are therefore a necessity, as urgent as during the most dangerous crises of the two-Blocks era. In the 1950s example of such an initiative was the Rapacki Plan. The Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs, Adam Rapacki, proposed establishing of a nuclear-free zone in Central Europe, encompassing the territories of both Blocks, i.e. both German states, Poland and Czechoslovakia. Despite support from Moscow, Prague, and East Berlin, as well as a very sympathetic reception by anti-war Western circles – this proposal failed to face the resistance of Atlantic militarists. However, it would certainly be worth referring to it today by creating such a zone excluded from the relocation of missile systems, including at least Poland, Ukraine, Romania, the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Scandinavia, and the Baltic states. Depending on the willingness of interested states, similar treaties could also be signed in Asia and other regions of the World. Otherwise, we are threatened with a permanent state of universal hybrid war – with the possibility of turning into a full-blown global conflict at any time.
Will Russians invade Ukraine?
Of course, the USA, UK, and NATO explain all their expansive actions in the East with “Russia’s aggressive plans towards Ukraine”. We should add that these plans are so secret and diabolical that thanks to the Western media and politicians, people talk about them over a beer in a pub and at family lunches. They are so obvious and known to everyone… It is probably not difficult to guess that if something is the subject of such a clear and intrusive propaganda campaign – we can be absolutely sure that there is no relation to reality. I have repeated many times, for the past seven years, when almost every day after the Euromaidan the Russian invasion into Ukraine was foretold: if only Russia wants that, after the morning roll call in Rostov, its soldiers will have lunch in Kharkiv, dinner in Kiev, and still have enough time for afternoon tea in Lviv cafes. And for supper, I invite them to the present Polish-Ukrainian border, near where I live…
Unfortunately, however, Russia has not attacked – because the Russians are not responsible for solving other nations’ problems. Since we know more about the first years of People’s Republics in Donbas, the more we read and hear about the moderating role of Russia, which has tried to stop the escalation of the conflict. This is not the place to judge whether it was right to grab the hands of Donbas field commanders, not letting them to go too far to the west. The fact is, however, that it was so. Russia could have liberated all of Ukraine (or conquered it if someone prefer that) a long time ago, and no one, at least the West, could do anything about it. Why then should it suddenly change politics and interfere with all this Ukrainian mess, especially announcing its own entrance with so long run-up? Just to help Western war hawks, gunmakers, and the funny Kiev clique who dreams of war to save his own stool?
Anyway, even in the Western media, we can hear trumpets retreat now. After several months of continuous counting, how many thousands of Russian tanks are about to break into a peaceful Ukraine – suddenly we can hear and read that it was probably… “Putin’s bluff” and possibly Russia does not want to invade anyone. For readers experienced in reading between the lines – the change of the message is therefore clear: “We will never admit we lied, but now we can say that there will be no war”. Well, looking at Ukraine’s impressive war budget (323 billion hryvnias, over 11 billion dollars!) it should be noted that the “Russo-Ukrainian war” has already fulfilled some of its tasks. The cash that the West “lends” to Kiev returns to the West in the form of military purchases, the business is booming, and the military-industrial complex with the media on its services counts profits.
Blowing Up Ukraine
For almost eight years now, Ukraine has remained the greatest threat to security and peace in Europe. The internal instability of this country, which is being torn apart between the oligarchs, and the western capital, is a ticking time bomb. Without disarming it there can be no meaningful reconfiguration of the international order, not only in this region of the world. Meanwhile, the comedian formally leading the state probably believed that is Napoleon he had played before. And he would sooner set fire to this land than let its inhabitants live in peace.
The 2014 coup in Ukraine
In February 2014, after months of right-wing “Maidan” demonstrations, Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych was forcibly removed from power by a coup. This coup was openly supported by US and European imperialism and implemented primarily by far-right shock troops such as the Right Sector and the neo-Nazi party Svoboda. The 2014 coup represented the temporary culmination of long-standing efforts by US imperialism to install a puppet regime on the borders of Russia. It brought the world a major step closer to a war between the world’s largest nuclear powers, the US and Russia.
The regime change prompted the outbreak of an ongoing civil war in the East of Ukraine between Russian-backed separatists and the US-backed Ukrainian army that has claimed the lives of tens of thousands and displaced millions. The Western-backed oligarchic regimes in Kiev have since imposed enormous austerity on the Ukrainian working class, which now ranks as the poorest in Europe. In the US, the coup was a catalyzer for an ever more aggressive campaign against Russia and the Putin regime, and a significant shift to the right among layers of the upper-middle class. US imperialism has continued to fund the Ukrainian state and far-right forces with billions of dollars for the civil war in East Ukraine and further war preparations against Russia.
The EU bourgeoisie seized upon the coup as a pretext for aggressively stepping up its campaign to remilitarize and justify the crimes of fascist forces. For the first time since the end of World War II, representatives of an EU were seen on photos with avowed Ukrainian neo-Nazis.
Zelensky: The Oligarch
What is supposed to be the most imported in 2022 is the so-called De-Oligarchising Act coming into force in May. The name is a bit misleading, as 55% of Ukrainians are considered an oligarch … Volodymyr Zelensky himself. Another 23% believe that he just wants to multiply personal wealth to equal to the main rulers of the national economy thanks to the new law, Either way, nobody believes in the good intentions of the Servant of the People, because the whole law could be titled “Against Poroshenko, Medvedchuk and especially AKHMETOV” for greater clarity. It is the former head of the Donetsk Clan who is now the main target of Zelensky’s sponsors. Even Ihor Kolomoyskyi, often arguing with his former court jester – restored an alliance with him in this matter. After 7tth May 2022 people included in the list of oligarchs will be obliged to inform about any purchase worth more than $5,000. What is quite funny as any respectable Ukrainian oligarch would never wear a single thing costing such crap money (the official average wage in Ukraine is around $500, the median earnings are less than $200).
Of course, everyone knows what the real Ukrainian “fight against corruption” looks like. Zelensky solemnly promised it to Biden, only to be left till the end of a term. Following that – for 15 months he could not find anyone for the Special Anti-Corruption Prosecutor Office, because no one met the basic criteria. Simple – there is no one in the president’s circle who does not take bribes… In addition, probably all the oligarchs and their political puppets are under the wall because of corruption scandals. There is Rotterdam Plus against Poroshenko and Akhmetov and Pandora Papers confirming that Kolomoyskyi has straight paid to Zelensky. And everyone knows for what – for sweeping under the rug a swindle with the PrivateBank from which $5.6 billion just disappeared. The only surprise may be the price – the President of Ukraine can be bought for just a stupid $40 million, which means less than a dollar per citizen’s head. Finally, the corruption charges were brought by Zelensky’s team against Oleksandr Tupytsky, chairman of the Constitutional Tribunal, whom the President simply and against the Constitution fired from the post, simultaneously slandering him to Americans. And that is not enough. The Servants of the People had a similar fight with the Kiev District Administrative Court and its head, Pavlo Vovk, who also obstructed the activities of the presidential administration. In a word, as it is in Ukraine – everyone stole, steals, and is going to steal as long as nothing is lefts to be stolen.
What else can be stolen?
The president’s people eliminate competitors because there is still a lot to be grabbed in Ukraine. The companies related to the presidential party’s run multi-billion-dollar road, railway, and thermo-modernization programs. Zelensky is in a hurry to keep up with the oligarchs and pay off sponsors. However, he knows that has to pay for the consent and the privilege of the time obtained from the West. The Anti-Oligarchic Act is therefore to be a barrier to separate domestic oligarchs from the goods secured for Western competitors. In 2021, there was a partial liberalization of land trading, and the legalization of the latifundium already existed in Ukraine under the cover of perpetual leases or joint ventures. And in 2022, the privatization of approximately 700 (out of the remaining 3,500) state-owned entities is planned, including huge mining and metallurgical plants, regional energy companies, and railways. Ukraine is a bargain for the West – to let the Servants of the Nation have at least a few more months to get something for themselves.
After all, Zelensky knows that even the most favorable polls give him no more than 23% support, and his party faces even worse results (at most 18%). And he himself already bred his own potential successor: Dmytro Razumkov, dismissed from the position of the Chairman of the Verkhovna Rada after his transfer on Akhmetov’s side – is almost officially presented in this oligarch’s televisions as the future president of the Samostiyna. So, the actor takes new roles: in Kiev he pretends to be a Banderist, in Israel excuses for neo-Nazism, in the Quadriga he goes to Ankara scaring everywhere with thousands of Russian soldiers who are already heating their engines before the march to Kiev. Ukraine wants to draw Turkey into a conflict with Russia, but someone else would benefit – primarily Great Britain, the United States, and Germany. Zelensky looks for stupid all over the World. What if he doesn’t find anyone?
In Ukraine war is traditionally considered the last chance of a dying administration. If frightening is not enough, Zelensky will probably not hesitate to create a provocation. At the same time understanding that it would finish him in his masters’ eyes.
The Brits on the Dnieper
But even in this situation, the Brits can offer a lifeline to the discredited Kiev junta. British troops make some walkabouts near the border with Donbas, adding credibility to Kiev’s war hysteria. Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced his arrival in the Spring, and it can be assumed that in the current situation in the Ukrainian capital, they will give him a better reception than Khmelnytsky 374 years ago. With US-Russia talks still ongoing in Geneva, the role of the war hawks’ nest is assigned to the United Kingdom. And that is what the Zelensky’s people seem to count on. The price is to be a sale of national assets worth at least $4 billion – but valued at just 430 million bucks. Another $11.8 billion is to be spent on defense, of course also in the hands of Western capital. And the final price may be peace in our part of the world and the lives of thousands, and perhaps millions, of Ukrainians.
For the New International Order
Therefore, there is no doubt that the period of World unipolarity has come to an end, but the new international order has not yet been clearly shaped. All these collisions and conflicts are absolutely natural way of establishing new rules and defining new spheres of influence. The descending empires often struggle with such problems, especially previously hiding and denying own weakness and decay. The United States simply must put on mean face, flex muscles and show the longest missiles. This is how they understand their prestige, these are their internal needs, and this is how they want to guarantee the subordination of the remaining vassals. Escaping the crisis with a recent expansion attempt, distracting rivals, delaying the inevitable – these are normal tactical tricks. Unfortunately, trying to displace reality by throwing everything on one card and creating a global war threat – that is also an option on the table. And that is no secret that there are American circles that would not hesitate to set the World on fire believing that “all-or-nothing” and “if not us – no one!”.
Of course, however, there are also pragmatists, as well as that part of financial capital skeptical about the policies implemented by states, pointing out that these are large corporations, not the great powers, which became the real subjects of the international order. These great interests will decide WAR or PEACE and so far (as we can see) the arguments are weighed. Not only between Washington and Moscow but even more between Wall Street, City, and Beijing/Shanghai.
And as far as poor Ukraine is concerned… Well, it will be the subject of a conflict between the West and Russia as long as there is still something to be stolen left. Although organized plunder has been going on practically from the first moments after the Euromaidan – Ukraine is still potentially a very rich country. Do we not remember how during the previous World War the Germans even uprooted black soils and took them away by trains? If the Ukrainians themselves do nothing about it, their country will only be left to itself when the last train with their resources leaves for the West. And even then, Ukraine will be assigned the role of a battlefield, including an atomic one.
As we know, Zelensky’s team has already legalized privatization of land, privileging large foreign property, previously hidden in the form of leases and joint ventures. In 2022 there is going to be a bargain with 700 of the 3,500 remaining state-owned enterprises, especially the power industry, mining, and metallurgical one. This is a reason why Zelensky announced his cabaret “war with the oligarchs” (that means with himself?) – so no one would prevent Western capital from grazing on Ukrainian wealth. To consume it in peace – the capital must threaten with war. That is the whole secret of “Russian aggression plans against Ukraine”…
There will be no other end of the World
So, is the threat of global conflict just a kind of marketing trick? Not exactly or probably not only. A few years ago, there was quite a popular theory that World War 3 had already begun, but we do not see all its symptoms yet. The shortage of more dramatic moments made skeptics question this hypothesis – after all, better or worse we live somehow. The international situation is quite normal, although from crisis to crisis and overall we can focus on other issues, from celebrities trough climate to pandemic. The problem is that the prophets of World War 3 were right. Only, as in the poem by the Polish-Lithuanian poet Czesław Miłosz about the end of the World that no one noticed – perhaps there will be no more global war other than a permanently hybrid war. And the inhabitants of not infected parts of the World will doubt if it is real at all. But an endless war for the New World Order will spread everywhere on more and more fronts.
The war we already know from Donbas, Syria, Yemen, Transcaucasia, now also Kazakhstan, soon maybe Taiwan, Ukraine or the Baltic States. But also many, many other conflicts in which enemies from one theatre of operations will often and suddenly become tactical allies elsewhere. This can be a war not only between states, because we already know that it is possible to fight almost entirely with private capital, only hiring states to carry out heavier airstrikes. Finally, it is a war in which whole cities can disappear under bombs and missiles, as it has been till now. But also the one in which some silent killer will fly through a window and this child’s-toy-like thing will win the decisive battle.
And most of us, if we only have a bit of luck – might never even notice…
source One World
Konrad Rękas Polish journalist and economist living in Aberdeen, Scotland, UK