Europe Should Have Rethought Its Africa Policy Before Lavrov’s Trip To The Continent

Russia’s overtures in Africa have left European officials anxious about the EU’s cautious pace to re-engage the Ethiopian government and Africa as a whole, despite accusations of war crimes and ethnic cleansing. It’s unimportant whether this is being done for the so-called “wrong reasons” related to improving the bloc’s competitiveness vis a vis Russia, nor that such a motivation is moot in any case since the EU and that Eurasian Great Power has completely different roles when it comes to Africa’s place in the global systemic transition to multipolarity since all that matters is that aid finally goes to those who need it most.

Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed was once a darling of the West and hailed as a reformer, even winning the 2019 Nobel Peace Prize, but has been more recently criticized for ordering the systematic murder of civilians in the Tigray region during a civil war. As a result, the EU has been reluctant to resume full financial support for Ahmed’s regime, despite tentative peace negotiations in the country. 

Politico headlined a piece late last week titled “Russia’s Africa moves force Europe rethink on Ethiopia”, which argues that Russia’s growing influence across the continent – which was on display during Foreign Minister Lavrov’s successful trip– should inspire the EU to reconsider its economic-financial restrictions against Ethiopia. The bloc had earlier jumped on the American bandwagon by condemning the federal government for its anti-terrorist campaign aimed at maintaining this cosmopolitan civilization-state’s unity in the face of the Western-backed TPLF-driven Hybrid War of Terror that’s been waged since November 2020 to punish that country for its principled neutrality in the New Cold War.  

The official Twitter account of the EU mission in Ethiopia even scored its own goal last week by tweeting statistics proving that the bloc does much more bilateral trade with its hosts than Russia does, which inadvertently served to confirm that the Russian-Ethiopian Strategic Partnership is about much more than economics and concerns the entire range of bilateral relations from people-to-people ties to military cooperation. Ethiopian-EU relations will never return to the status quo ante bellum prior to the bloc backing terrorists-separatists against the federal government but it would be mutually beneficial if Brussels reversed its economic restrictions against the country with a view toward helping its people.

Genuine humanitarian aid and other outreach efforts shouldn’t ever be politicized, let alone on false pretexts, as that makes them nothing more than Hybrid War weapons wielded for humanitarian imperialist ends. Therein lies the dark truth that the EU has tried to sweep under the rug for decades, namely that it doesn’t engage in sincere humanitarian efforts across the world but simply uses such rhetoric as a cover for disguising the unconventional means through which it attempts to exert its influence and obtain leverage over recipient countries. The purpose is to strategically withhold such aid at the most sensitive moments in order to put maximum pressure on targeted governments.

But several EU diplomats from the bloc’s larger members argue Russia’s increasing presence in Ethiopia has made it difficult to maintain strict EU standards in the country — and say countries including Italy, Germany, France, and the Netherlands are pushing to give more funding to the country’s government. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov was even in Addis Ababa on Wednesday, pledging support and accusing Western powers of retaining a colonial mindset in the region. William Davison, the so-called senior Ethiopia analyst at the International Crisis Group, even said;

“There are fears Russia might take advantage of deteriorating ties with Addis and its Western partners.

“So there is an overarching desire with some countries for stability with a relatively important ally over humanitarian concerns like accountability over war crimes.”

With that in mind, the European Commission recently authorized €81.5 million in humanitarian funding for education and health projects — but made clear the projects would occur “outside of government structures,” a spokeswoman said. A potential €1 billion in EU funding for Ethiopia, cut off amid the war, could be released in the coming years, after strict conditions like foreign troops withdrawing and a permanent ceasefire are upheld. One diplomat familiar with the matter said;

“There’s an openness to engage based on progress, and real concerns about China and Russia filling any gaps. But at the same time, we can’t just throw out our norms and values.”

This constant calculus highlights the broader challenge bedeviling European policymakers: How to pursue their stated goal of promoting European values in Africa, which sometimes means withholding funds, while the Kremlin makes inroads by blaming the West for Africa’s challenges and offering no-strings-attached deals. Or worse, letting Moscow arm belligerents in fragile states and empower war criminals. 

When to approve the money 

In March, the Ethiopian government declared a truce in the conflict, which has already left tens of thousands dead and millions displaced or on the brink of starvation. Peace talks with Tigray’s leadership are tentatively set for August. But the Commission said not enough has been achieved to resume financial budget support that was suspended after the war broke out in November 2020.

However, Ethiopia’s multipolar leadership is extremely sovereign, and won’t ever unilaterally concede on any issues that it regards as being in its objective national interest such as proudly defending its civilization-state from the existential threat posed by Western-backed terrorist-separatists. The EU lost countless hearts and minds in what’s arguably Africa’s most influential country by virtue of it hosting the African Union as well as having the proud distinction of being the historical cradle of anti-imperialism and Pan-Africanism. Nevertheless, it can reduce some of the hardship that it’s inflicted upon that country’s people by resuming its economic and financial support for them without strings attached. An EU Commission spokeswoman said;

“Although there was some progress in Ethiopia … there is still an urgent need to re-establish basic services [in Tigray], like access to fuel, energy, banks, communications,”

Unlike the EU, the World Bank has started extending a hand to PM Ahmed. The bank in April announced a $300 million grant for the reconstruction of war-torn regions including Tigray, which remains under a military blockade that continues to cause suffering for millions of civilians. Mehari Taddele Maru, a political economist at the European University Institute in Florence, said the World Bank plan was “hasty and not well considered” and “greases the war machine.” 

“Any EU member state that supports World Bank financing, or wants business as usual, ignores possible genocide, it is ridiculous.

“This will not lead to sustainable peace but could cause further fragmentation.” 

Ethiopia’s state minister for finance, Eyob Tekalign Tolina, dismissed concerns via text message about the World Bank-funded reconstruction plan, saying it was “ambitious, critical and urgent” and would rebuild schools and health services. The minister then turned the blame on Tigray:

“Instead of reciprocating wholeheartedly (to the truce), Tigray’s leaders are beating war drums. …

“This group is incapable of handling peace, they thrive off conflict.”

The rhetoric reflects the difficult position facing Brussels. Ethiopia is not a stable ground for lasting peace talks. But peace is needed for rebuilding and strengthening relations with a key regional ally. Ethiopia’s ties to Russia, which once included support from the Soviet Union, are mostly security related rather than an attempt to fully move into Moscow’s orbit. Russia may not compete with the West’s deep pockets and “checkbook diplomacy.”

It’s unimportant whether this is being done for the so-called “wrong reasons” related to improving the bloc’s competitiveness vis a vis Russia, nor that such a motivation is moot in any case since the EU and that Eurasian Great Power has completely different roles when it comes to Africa’s place in the global systemic transition to multipolarity since all that matters is that aid finally goes to those who need it most. If the EU has to tell itself that this will somehow or another give it an edge over Russia in order to do the right thing (even if only for the wrong reasons), then that’s seemingly the only way to get it to help the Ethiopian people, which certainly wouldn’t turn down this aid. 

Global Food Crisis Caused by Sanctions on Russia

The Russian Foreign Minister said the global food crisis is a result of unprecedented sanctions against his country and insisted on softening it to mitigate the problem. Briefing African diplomats based in Addis Ababa and the media today, Lavrov said the sanction against Russia, especially against its ships, has been affecting the food, fertilizer, and gas markets. The minister described the ongoing global food crisis coverage by the “Western media totally distorted.”

He added that the shortage of food and fertilizer is instead exacerbated because of the unprecedented campaign of sanctions and accusations. This sanction is affecting Russia from supplying food and fertilizer to the global market, including Africa, which is the major importer of these goods.

“The sanction is undermining the availability of food in the market. When we explained this to them, they said food and fertilizer are not affected by sanctions. Of course, it is half true. But the truth is that the list of sanctions does not contain an item saying ‘food.’ But it does contain a prohibition for the Russian ships to go to the port in the Mediterranean.”

Lavrov further mentioned, that the sanction also includes the prohibition of foreign ships to go to Russian ports to pick up food supplies and other cargo. Mentioning the latest deal with the UN and Turkey on reopening the blockade on Black Sea routes for grain exports, the Russian minister said “the latest attempt by our Turkish friend and the Secretary-General of the United Nations resulted in a deal between Russia and the UN whereby Secretary-General António Guterres committed himself to press Western countries to lift those restrictions, which I just mentioned. We will see whether he can succeed.”

A fragile peace

Simmering tensions remain across Ethiopia, a country of 120 million people from more than 80 ethnic groups. There are fears Ethiopia could splinter as Addis Ababa tries to consolidate power via a centralized model of governance. Even with the recent infusion of development funds, economic uncertainty looms over the country as it faces an economic crisis after a decade of growth. And there is a fear that if the economy collapses, there will be security and migration repercussions felt not just in Africa but also in Europe. 

Earlier this year, Ethiopia asked the International Monetary Fund to restructure some of its debt as part of an initiative to help countries navigate the pandemic’s fallout. But critics argue Ethiopia’s financial woes are tied to its costly war in Tigray. EU countries appear to have taken a varied approach to Ethiopia. France, for instance, cut off an €85 million military loan to Ethiopia in August of 2021. Yet by May of the following year, Italy announced it had struck a deal with the Ethiopian government that included a €22 million “soft loan” for business ventures in regions including Tigray.

At an EU level, the bloc has not always shown a unified stance. Brussels’ top diplomat Josep Borrell scolded members for failing last year to reach an agreement on sanctions linked to the war. One diplomat said this illustrated the diverging views over how to best foster peace in Ethiopia. 

The larger trend at play is that the EU is finally realizing how counterproductive its prior approach of submitting its foreign policy to US control has been for its interests across the Global South and in Africa in particular. That doesn’t necessarily mean that it’ll independently change course, but just that the idea has finally begun to circulate among some influential folks that politicizing humanitarian issues doesn’t achieve the dividends that were expected but rather creates strategic openings for its geopolitical opponents like Russia to maximally appeal to its Global South partners by pledging no-strings-attached comprehensive support for them.